Fair Mobilization: Is This Even Achievable?
Ukraine's Parliament adopted the new law on mobilization, which is far from being fair
On April 11, the Ukraine's Parliament finally adopted the law #10449 on mobilization. It has taken six months since last fall and 11 hours on Wednesday for the MPs to review and confirm the rejection of 4,263 amendments and the approval of another 31. This long-expected law aims to recruit the next wave of Ukrainian men to the war. They have to replace thousands of dead and wounded patriots who held the front during the last two years. However, the primary goal of this law was to make mobilization fair and just, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
From time to time, I get tragic news from my former Homeland about my comrades with whom I served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2014-2015, repelling the first Russian invasion. In 2022-2023, eight of them had been killed defending Ukraine for the second time, as battle-hardened veterans were called back to service. Overall, at least 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed during the full-scale war, according to President Zelensky. They should be replaced.
As the war unfolded, the Ukrainian government soon realized that the post-Soviet mobilization model didn’t work and did not supply enough recruits to fill the ranks during the high-intensity fight. Moreover, Ukrainian society was shocked by how unfair the enlistment process was, allowing many to ignore the draft. Days ago, Minister of Internal Affairs Igor Klimenko said the police had identified hundreds of thousands of those in its database.
Traditionally, all leaders prefer to avoid personal responsibility for sensitive issues, especially when sending their constituents to possible death in war. President Zelensky was not exempt. He also tried easy fixes before digging into the complex mobilization reform, which requires time. (There is no reason to blame him because no one knew how long the Russo-Ukrainian War would last.)
Last summer, Zelensky replaced commanders of all 20+ regional conscription offices with battle-hardened veterans. He expected that society would treat war heroes with respect, and this would soften tensions. He thought this would calm mothers and wives outraged by corruption scandals in those offices. Contrary to expectations, this mini-reform slowed the entire mobilization because veterans lacked experience in those organizational roles. After much trouble, Commander-in-Chief four-star General Valeriy Zaluzhny insisted that the President reverse his move, as the previous model worked better. But General’s criticism angered Zelensky, deepening their personal conflict. On the other hand, Russian propaganda kept undermining Ukraine’s efforts by exploiting bribery episodes and videos of violence toward conscripts.
The next Zelensky’s fix was the replacement of his defense minister and Commander-in-Chief. Before the dismissal, General Valeriy Zaluzhny went to the Parliament to convince the MPs to adopt the new law on mobilization. His successor, General Alexander Syrsky, also intervenes in the legislative process. He asked a new Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov, to exclude from the draft law the proposed article on the discharge of those mobilized men who served 36 months. Ukraine can not allow thousands to quit the army. The minister and the Cabinet of Ministers agreed, and this article was excluded. (Meanwhile, this article was originally populistic. It contradicted the Constitution, which prohibits demobilization during martial law. On the other hand, any demobilization requires a presidential decree, which Zelensky is not ready to issue yet.)
Currently, Zelensky is under growing pressure from a devoted electoral base: urban, mostly Russian-speaking mothers and wives who don’t want their sons and husbands, respectively, to sit in the trenches for so long. For example, just days ago, the MP from the presidential party, Inna Sovsun, went into tears on live television, complaining that her mobilized husband had not seen their children for years.
The government made a little compromise to please constituents, at least somehow. It adopted a separate law on the discharge of 7,000 twenty-year-olds conscripted for mandatory short-term military service before the war. Mothers begged Kyiv to let them out. They would get a guaranteed year at home and then have to go to fight again at 25 if the war was still there. Moreover, mandatory military service for eighteen-year-olds has been canceled by the new law #10449. In other words, through all those decisions, Zelensky postponed the war mobilization of sons from the mothers of his generation.
Overall, the new mobilization law #10449 is not as fair as Zelensky's team initially promulgated. I have already mentioned that soldiers in trenches did not get the promise to be discharged during wartime. Besides that, the law does not introduce criminal prosecution for those who dodge the draft. Instead, the lawmakers dramatically increased fines for them and imposed limitations on their driver’s licenses and passport renewals abroad. It means that they are all welcome to return home clean once the war ends.
At the same time, the new law motivates soldiers by boosting their compensation and benefits, especially for those who voluntarily decide to sign contracts and stay. Also, the law allows convicts with light transgressions to join the Ukrainian army for the first time.
Due to a month-long delay after the presidential approval, the new law’s impact won't be felt until May. This means that the latest wave of mobilization may not start in Ukraine until June. Given the traditional timeline of mobilization and training, it's most likely that new recruits will get to the front only by next winter. Other Ukrainian experts also emphasize that this law will not help the government to boost mobilization quickly but will fix issues, especially with proper military service registration.
Predicting that, in March, the retired U.S. General and former Commander of the US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, criticized Kyiv for failing mobilization. Talking to Ukrainian Radio NV, he said Kyiv could recruit an additional two million troops by now, but it has yet to happen.
"When I hear that there's a lack of forces, that commanders are running out of people - for me this is unbelievable! Because I know that there are more than two million of the conscription-age Ukrainian men and women who are eligible to serve... This isn't an army's failure. This is an inability of the government and the Parliament to change the law", said Ben Hodges.
Meanwhile, Russia is ready for a protracted war. At least for now, time still works for them. After Putin’s re-election in March, the order was made to mobilize hundreds of thousands more.
"I can say that Russia is ready to mobilize 300,000 additional servicemen by June 1st," the Ukrainian President said during a press conference in Kyiv with Finnish President Alexander Stubb on April 3rd.
Putin sees the effectiveness of his so-called “meat assaults” of Mariupol, Volnovakha, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Bakhmut, Mariinka, and just recently Avdiivka. He throws his men to die in thousands for tiny pieces of Ukrainian land, which is an unbelievable waste of people’s lives. But, Russia’s population is more than three times as large as Ukraine’s so Putin still has manpower for years ahead.